Written By: Austin Lee Twitter: @AustinLee365FF
Monday is upon us and while week 4 is wrapping up tonight with a showdown between the Chargers and Raiders, the 365 team is already getting a jump on some week 5 DFS homework. You can check back on the site each week for the First Look series to get a peak at the salaries that stand out, matchups and other meaningful information that you can put to good use for your DFS lineups and preparation.
Kyler Murray vs. San Francisco ($8,000) – It’s a lofty price tag, but he’s the QB1 and averaging nearly 30 fantasy points per game on Draft Kings. The quarterback position is where you’re going to get the best correlation of salary and performance, so it makes sense why Murray is near or on top of the board most weeks. His rushing ability alone gives him a ton of safety. This week he’s at home against the 49ers who are 27th in the league in plays given up, 27th in passing attempts given up, and while the 49ers aren’t allowing their opponents inside the red zone much (7th in the league), once their opponents do get in the red zone they are scoring more often than not as SF is 25th in red zone TD% allowed. All these metrics bode well for a team like the Cardinals who operate at a high pace of play.
Daniel Jones @ Dallas ($6,000) – Dak and the offense are going to have no problem putting up points. This is going to force the Giants to try to keep up in a meaningful divisional game. Jones is playing surprisingly well and while the Dallas defense is undoubtedly improved from their 2020 version, teams are still putting up points with ease. Dallas is 27th in yards given up, 31st in passing yards allowed, passing attempts and passing completions and are 28th in red zone attempts allowed. Jones has the safety of running the ball as well and this may be a game where that will certainly be needed. Saquon has played well the last two weeks, but Dallas is 8th in rushing yards allowed, 1st in rushing attempts allowed and rushing touchdowns allowed. With Barkley more than likely being contained in this matchup, Jones will be put in a position to beat the Cowboys with his arm and legs. The value is outstanding at only $6k and will allow you to pay up elsewhere.
Jared Goff @ Minnesota ($5,300) – It’s early in the week, but this one jumped out of the screen and slapped me in the face. Goff has drastically outperformed expectations this year and is in prime position to put up another big week. Minnesota will rack up points this week and Goff will be unleashed to rack up yardage and fantasy points. Minnesota ranks 27th in points allowed, 28th in yards allowed, 26th in passing yards allowed, 21st in completions allowed and rushing yards allowed, 22nd in passing touchdowns allowed and red zone touchdowns allowed. All signs point to the Lions being able to push the pace of play and the overall game score up. That’s what we’re looking for in GPPs and at only $5,300 it will allow you to do so much more with your lineup.
Trey Lance @ Arizona ($5,700) – 49ers Head Coach, Kyle Shanahan, is saying he’s not ready to rule out Jimmy Garoppolo just yet, but that’s just ridiculous. Lance should get the start and you couldn’t ask for a better situation for the rookie sensation. Arizona is a middle-of-the-pack defense across the board and Lance is electric with the ball in his hands, including his scrambling ability. Both of these teams want to push the tempo and Lance has big play ability at a discount salary. If he plays well and puts up big numbers this week, that could mean the end for Jimmy G in San Francisco.
Derrick Henry @ Jacksonville ($9,000) – Henry might not have put up the GPP-busting performance we were expecting last weekend, but he very well might against Jacksonville. It’s tough to bite the bullet and pay up nearly 20% of your salary for one guy and not get the performance you want, but that should result in people staying away from him this week. That makes him an excellent GPP play for week 5. Henry went for 215 yards and 2 touchdowns against Jacksonville in week 14 last season and could very well do it again on Sunday. That level of production is something you just can’t miss out on.
Dalvin Cook vs. Detroit ($8,400) – Cook let a lot of people down last week, including me. He also disappointed fantasy managers in week 3, so with the recent struggles I expect people to be shying away from him as well. History shows us when Cook comes in with less than 10% ownership, he’s a phenomenal GPP play and that’s more than likely going to be the case in week 5. He’s going to bounce back in a big way against a Detroit defense that are 31st in points given up, 27th in rushing attempts allowed, 24th in rushing touchdowns allowed and 27th in red zone touchdowns allowed. This is a game script that is highly favorable for Cook to do tons of damage.
Ezekiel Elliott vs. New York Giants ($7,000) – Zeke has been balling the last couple weeks and his salary at $7k feels too cheap to pass up on. The Cowboys are on fire when playing at home and will be playing ahead for the majority of the game which is a positive game script for Zeke. The Giants are middle of the road against the run, but abysmal against the pass. Dak will have no problems moving the ball down the field and getting in scoring position. This could be one of those games where Zeke ends up with multiple touchdowns and 25+ fantasy points.
Damien Harris @ Houston ($5,500) – The Texans are a bottom-half defense and while this matchup will draw virtually zero attention from the DFS community. If you’re considering playing Brandin Cooks, don’t. Belichick is going to take him away and make Mills beat them some other way. Spoiler alert – they can’t. Point being, this is going to be an ugly, grinder of a game. That bodes extremely well for Damien Harris who has already rushed for 100+ yards once this season. This could very well be another and with an ownership likely to be less than 3%, if he gets to the 100-yard mark again (which gets 3 bonus points on DK) and manages to find the end zone, he’s going to return excellent value.
Chris Godwin vs. Miami ($6,300) – After back to back disappointing offensive performances, Tom Brady and company are looking to bounce back in a big way in week 5. Miami’s defense is okay, but they are nowhere near good enough to contain the high-powered Bucs offense the way the Rams and Patriots did. Godwin could be in line for a massive day and he represents the best GPP option from Tampa Bay this week.
Kenny Golladay @ Dallas ($5,900) – It seems the temper tantrum he threw on the sideline has made an impact. Kenny G was able to turn 7 targets into 6 receptions for 116 yards against the Saints in week 4. He’s yet to find the end zone this season, but a matchup against the Cowboys is as good of opportunity as one could hope for. Daniel Jones should put up major numbers and will need his receivers to do so. Shepard is still dealing with an injury and Slayton is out. Dallas is great against the run, so Golladay may very well see 12+ targets this week. If he’s able to haul in at least 8 and find the end zone, he will end up as a fantastic value in your DFS lineups.
Laviska Shenault Jr. vs. Tennessee ($4,800) – Chark has been sent to the IR and in his absence it was Shenault that stepped up with a 6 receptions for 99 yards performance. The Jaguars are going to be in a situation all year long of playing from behind and needing to throw the ball to catch back up. Marvin Jones is the safer play, but Shenault represents the upside play you’re looking for in tournaments.
Quintez Cephus @ Minnesota ($4,300) – One of the biggest questions heading into the season was, “Who is going to be the receiver to own in Detroit?” We knew someone had to separate as a fantasy option and it appears through the first four weeks of the season that the answer is Quintez Cephus. Goff has targeted him 20 times and he’s averaging over 10 fppg. With such a favorable game environment against Minnesota, Cephus has a logical path to reach 20 points if he’s able to get in the end zone. If he’s able to 5X his salary, that should easily put you above the cash line as long as your other players hit.
Darren Waller vs. Chicago ($7,300) – It’s low-hanging fruit but he’s essentially a wide receiver and a difference-maker at the tight end position. He is a threat for double-digit targets, 100 yards and a score every week. He’s too good to not consider.
George Kittle @ Arizona ($5,600) – Kittle has been incredibly disappointing thus far, but he’s still a top tier tight end and a threat to be the tight end one each week. His price tag is at a point where it practically begs you to play him. With electric rookie, Trey Lance, set to start under center this week, you can’t help but be excited about the big play potential that brings to all the 49ers pass-catchers.
T.J. Hockenson @ Minnesota ($5,500) – I already mentioned I liked Goff and Cephus this week, but Hockenson is right there in the mix as well. He’s the first read for Goff and this matchup is just too sweet.
Hunter Henry @ Houston ($3,700) – The Patriots are going to be favored in this matchup and Henry has emerged as a reliable target for Mac Jones. Favorable game scripts often favor the tight end and this could be a game where Henry ends up with a touchdown or two.
Cameron Brate vs. Miami ($3,300) – It’s really just as simple as this: Tom Brady loves throwing to his tight ends. Gronk is likely out as he recovers from a punctured lung and fractured ribs so it’s next man up at the tight end position in a game where the Bucs will be looking to put lots of points on the board.