Written By: Austin Lee Twitter: @AustinLee365FF
What’s up, 365 Nation?! I hope you’re all having a great week and are ready for an even better weekend filled with wins in your home leagues and extra cash winnings in DFS. After spending the last few days doing my homework, I’m ready to share my DFS picks with you for the week 4 main slate. Before we get into the players I’m liking most for this week, I’ll share with you the over/under and implied point totals for the week.
I’ll also share with you my updated research on the over/under information through the first three weeks.
Without further ado, let’s jump into my DFS picks of the week. I’m going to mix it up a little bit here and also add in player pools for each position.
Dak Prescott vs. Carolina – At the low price of $6,700 it feels as if Draft Kings is gift wrapping a top quarterback for you. The Cowboys and Panthers have an over/under set at 50.5 and as you can see above, through the first 3 weeks of the season those lines have hit the over 67% of the time. This one should as well. The Cowboys defense has improved overall from 2020, but the secondary is still bleeding points to opposing wide receivers. Sam Darnold is top 10 in the NFL in passing yards, so the Panthers should be able to push the pace and keep up with the Cowboys and all of the players on the Carolina side are excellent values as well, including Sam Darnold at only $6,000.
Josh Allen vs. Houston – It may sound like low-hanging fruit to plug Josh Allen in your lineup, but it’s more difficult his $8,000 price tag this week. Regardless of his current salary, this matchup against Houston is obviously just too favorable. There is no running game in Buffalo, meaning the majority of their team implied 32 points will come through the air. There’s a clear and logical path for Allen to 4-5X this week.
Jalen Hurts vs. Kansas City – It’s been a wild start to the 2021 NFL season and one of the more shocking aspects is that the Chiefs are sitting at the bottom of their conference at 1-2 and have been handed back-to-back losses. You just know that doesn’t sit well with the Chiefs and they are looking to make a statement here in week 4. While that may be bad news for the Eagles, it’s great news for DFS players. The Eagles are going to be forced to attempt to keep up with Kansas City offensively and as bad as Kansas City’s defense is, they just might be able to! If you want to go contrarian and gain leverage against all those people that will be playing the Chiefs players, rolling Eagles stacks out should be a solid plan that will save you thousands for better roster construction.
QB Player Pool: Matt Ryan, Sam Darnold, Kyler Murray, Jimmy Garoppolo, Russell Wilson.
Derrick Henry @ Jets – This very well may end up as a chalk pick, but we’ll see once the roster percentages are shared if there’s a majority of DFS players that feel good about Henry’s $8,800 salary this week. It’s a lot, but this may be one of those games where King Henry ends up with 200+ yards and 2+ touchdowns. That’s especially possible if Julio Jones joins A.J. Brown on the sidelines. Fact is, you need to find a way to make that salary work in your lineup. If you miss out on that production, you’re going to be buried by the field.
Najee Harris @ Green Bay – Harris ended up with 14 receptions on 19 (NINETEEN!) targets in week 3. It’s unclear right now whether Juju and Diontae will be active for week 4, but even if they are, they are nowhere near 100%. Add in the fact that Big Ben is still dealing with a pectoral injury, is immobile behind a terrible offensive line and you have the makings for Harris to see many more check down targets. Considering Draft King’s full PPR format and Harris’ $6,800 salary, it just feels like you have to get him in there.
Miles Sanders vs. Kansas City – I mentioned above that the Chief’s defense is one of the worst in the league. Through the first three weeks, they’ve essentially been a funnel for opposing running backs. Sanders’ price tag is $6,400 is a little higher than anticipated coming off a Monday night game where he only saw 5 total touches, but that just implies the production that is expected from him.
RB Player Pool: Antonio Gibson, Alvin Kamara, David Montgomery, Chris Carson, J.D. McKissic
Ceedee Lamb vs. Carolina – Cooper is still dealing with lingering effects of bruised ribs and will subsequently be “protected” with shallow sideline routes that won’t lead to much production. Gallup is out and while Wilson has filled in admirably, the ceiling play lies firmly with Ceedee Lamb. Lamb has top 5 wide receiver potential with a price tag at only $6,700.
Terry McLaurin @ Atlanta – The Falcons look like they might legitimately be the worst team in the NFL. Their secondary is on the Oprah Winfrey giveaway plan and McLaurin has seen 21 targets over the last 2 weeks. All signs point to McLaurin putting up big numbers in week 4.
Corey Davis vs. Tennessee – Davis is averaging over 7 targets per game and has already put up a 25+ point performance this year. Swiss cheese has less holes than the Titans secondary and that makes Davis and his $5,000 salary an extreme value this week.
WR Player Pool: Cooper Kupp, Brandon Aiyuk, Robby Anderson, Stefon Diggs, Tyler Lockett, Christian Kirk, Calvin Ridley, Brandin Cooks, Emmanuel Sanders, Tyreek Hill
This is a bit of a different week at the tight end position. With Kittle being banged up and Waller on the Monday night game, you’re either paying up for Kelce or paying all the way down, so I’ll just list my TE player pool:
Travis Kelce, Dalton Schultz, Austin Hooper, Logan Thomas, T.J. Hockenson, Jack Doyle, Will Dissly
Saints ($3,800), Lions ($2,200), Packers ($3,300), Giants ($2,900), Bills ($4,300), Dolphins ($3,200), Colts ($2,700)