Written By: Austin Lee Twitter: @AustinLee365FF
It’s that time of the week! Let’s jump right into the matchups this week and see where the best plays are at for your chance at some extra cash.
Now that we have the information we need, let’s take a look at some of the best games to target.
Arizona (29.75) @ Jacksonville (22.25)
It’s not the highest over/under (52) on the week, but that’s why I want to start here. The 55.5 over/under games are going to draw a lot of attention, but Arizona has the highest implied team total on the week as well as the current QB1 who is playing at MVP level. Murray is the most expensive ($8,300) quarterback on the slate, but he’s worth it. The Jacksonville defense is 27th in passing yards allowed, 25th in rushing yards allowed, 31st in red zone attempts allowed and 27th in red zone touchdowns given up. Kyler is going to put up another phenomenal performance this week and DeAndre Hopkins ($8,200) should be in your lineup as well.
On the other side of the ball, Arizona ranks 26th in rushing yards given up through the first two weeks and 25th in red zone touchdown percentage, so James Robinson ($5,700) is definitely worth looking at. You’ll want to bring it back with a Jacksonville wide receiver and with Shenault questionable this week, you’re really only looking at Chark or Marvin Jones. Chark has been used as the deep threat, which the Cardinals can be susceptible against, but Marvin leads the team in nearly meaningful passing category and is the better value at $4,900.
Favorite Stacking Options: Murray/Hopkins/MJJ/Robinson, Murray/Hopkins/Moore/MJJ, Lawrence/Robinson/Chark/Kirk
Los Angeles Chargers (20.75) @ Kansas City (27.25)
Obviously, everyone loves targeting the chalk that is the Kansas City Chiefs. It makes sense – it’s a top offense that is 100% matchup proof. The thing is, if you target Chiefs stacks, it’s extremely difficult to construct the rest of your roster with players that have a logical path to the production needed to cash out in a big way. You’re essentially left with 4-5 dart throws and that’s just too much risk unless you find that perfect with where the stars align with matchups and values.
While many people are going to attempt the Chiefs stacks, the sharp move this week may very well to take a chance on the Chargers stacks. We know the Chiefs are more than likely going to put up a lot of points and force the Chargers to keep up. Los Angeles is already 4th in the league in pace of play and they very well might have to push the tempo even further this week. The Chiefs are heralded as a pass-heavy offense, but the Chargers are throwing the ball 66% of the time compared to KC’s 62%. The Chiefs are 28th in points allowed, dead last in yards allowed and dead last against the run and rushing touchdowns given up. Herbert is sitting at $6,500, Ekeler at $7,200 and Keenan Allen is somehow only $6,600. All signs point to the Chargers being the optimal stack this week.
Favorite Stacking Options: Herbert/Ekeler/Allen/Kelce, Herbert/Ekeler/Allen/Hill, Herbert/Allen/Guyton/Hill
Seattle (28.75) @ Minnesota (26.75)
I project all the attention being on the Seattle side of the ball. Wilson and Lockett have been on fire, much to the chagrin of Metcalf owners. This matchup has a juicy 55.5 point over/under which solidifies a ton of attention will be on the matchup. Let’s take a look at how the over/under results have turned out through the first two weeks of the season:
That’s quite the stark contrast to last year’s numbers and I can see this matchup hitting the over. Both defenses are terrible which will keep pressure on the offenses to push the pace of play and rack up points. Minnesota’s defense is 27th in points allowed and bottom 10 in nearly every other meaningful category. Seattle may actually be a little worse overall – dead last in plays ran against, 30th in total yards given up, 25th against the pass and 31st against the run. This may be another situation where going with the Vikings stacks would be an easy way to get leverage against the people in the field that are chasing the Wilson/Lockett points.
Favorite Stacking Options: Wilson/Lockett/Metcalf/Thielen, Cousins/Cook/Jefferson/Metcalf, Cousins/Cook/Metcalf/Osborn
Aside from those mentioned above, I really like Ryan Tannehill ($6,200) going up against a terrible Indianapolis defense that can’t stop the pass. One of my other favorite value plays this week at the QB spot is actually Daniel Jones ($5,800). He possesses that rushing upside where even if he doesn’t rush for a bunch of yards like he did in week 2, he always has the chance of rushing one in from inside the 5. The matchup couldn’t get much better for Jones as Atlanta is dead last in points allowed, last in passing TDs allowed, dead last in overall TDs allowed and 31st in red zone defense.
There are quite a few on the slate this week that draw my attention. Saquon Barkley at $6,500 feels like an absolute steal! I get the reservation, though. He’s been a total bust but we warned that it was going to take some time for him to get back to where he was and the first couple matchups were brutal. He gets some relief this week in Atlanta. If he doesn’t put up numbers this week, it’s time to worry. Melvin Gordon and his $5,500 price tag against the Jets is another decent value play.
It might be gross and brings a lot of risk, but Clyde Edwards-Helaire is only $4,800. He’s done virtually nothing this season so far and nobody wants to touch him in DFS. This might be an opportune time, especially if you’re playing multiple lineups, to take a chance on him. He won’t have to do much to return value at his current price. My favorite value play at the RB position this week is Gio Bernard at only $4,200. The Bucs are taking on the Rams and everyone will be on the receiving options of each team. If the Rams are able to get pressure on Brady early and often, it’s logical to see Gio on the field a ton this week as a quick outlet option for Brady. We know he hates to get hit!
My favorites are mentioned above in the games to attack segment, but here are a few others. Cooper Kupp $6,800 has been on fire and the Tampa Bay secondary has been lit up the first couple weeks. He’s probably going to be chalk this week and that’s fine. You need a little chalk in your lineup in order to move with the herd and hit on a couple contrarian players to separate from the pack. Cole Beasley ($4,800) and Hunter Renfrow ($4,000) are essentially the same player – they’re PPR machines for their respective teams and each have a tough defensive matchup where they should be leaned on heavily to move the chains. There’s not a whole lot of options in the middle salary level that I have a lot of confidence this week. It looks to be one of those weeks where you either pay up or pay down at the WR spot.
We obviously know Kelce and Waller are the big names to get, but they also cost a pretty penny to get on your roster. Gronk $5,500 is one of my favorite plays this week as he will likely be leaned on as the security blanket and another outlet option for Brady to avoid pressure from Aaron Donald and company. Mark Andrews is sitting at $5,000 and has a juicy matchup against the Lions. Of course you want to look at T.J. Hockenson as well. I’d also be willing to look at Evan Engram this week if he’s active at only $3,600. The Giants have missed having their big, field-stretching tight end in the middle of the field to open up everything else.
The Broncos and Patriots sit atop the rankings on Draft Kings this week and for good reason. If I opt out of those two, the next one I’m looking at is the Raiders ($3,400) with a great matchup against the Tua-less Dolphins. The Saints ($3,100) are a decent option this week. After that, I’m going all the way down to the Bengals ($2,100) who are actually my favorite play. Big Ben is dealing with a pec injury, Diontae Johnson is dealing with a knee injury and the offensive line is a dumpster fire. Najee Harris hasn’t been impressive thus far and the Bengals are top 10 in nearly every category, including the run and number 5 in the league in sacks. This could be a very long day for Big Ben.