Written By: Austin Lee Twitter – @AustinLee365FF
The main slate of games will be upon us before we know it! It’s time to start fine-tuning those lineups and I’m here to help! Let’s take a look at a couple targets at each position that have a clear path to help you cash out this weekend.
Again, my preferred platform is Draft Kings. Their full PPR format allows for more options and they offer the 3-point bonuses for passers (300+ yards), pass catchers (100+ yards) and rushers (100+ yards). 3 points may not sound like much, but when you are competing against millions of other lineups, every fraction of a point matters. 3 points can mean the difference in thousands of dollars in payout prizes.
Jalen Hurts @ Atlanta – $6,400
The over/under (48.5) is right in the wheelhouse that you want to target. The Eagles’ implied point total (22.5) is on the lower side, but his 9% ownership reflects the upside he has, especially with his rushing ability. Both of these defenses are horrendous, but both offenses have talented playmakers that are more than capable of pushing the pace of play. We saw Hurts put up 34.82 points against a terrible defense in week 15 last year with no weapons. Now he has a Devonta Smith coming in that is an elite separator off the line of scrimmage.
Ryan Tannehill vs. Arizona – $6,500
The Cardinals and Titans boast the second-highest over/under (53.5) on the main slate. At first glance earlier in the week, I really thought because of the high over/under, people would be heavily targeting this game, but they’re not. Arizona’s secondary was one of the worst in the league in 2020 and it just got worse with the surprising retirement of Malcolm Butler. Julio Jones and A.J. Brown are going to absolutely bully the atrocious secondary all game long and Tannehill is going to rack up the points.
Raheem Mostert @ Detroit – $5,800
Mostert is the fastest ball-carrier in the NFL and he’s going up against what is expected to be a bottom-3 defense. San Francisco has an implied point total of 26.5 and they should have no problem getting there. There’s a legitimate chance they rack up 35+ points. Not only is Mostert a huge piece of their offense, but the game script is favorable for him to keep getting fed. With a guy that is at the top of the league with 8.7% of his carries going for 15+ yards, all signs point to Mostert being a must start. What’s even sweeter is his 7.5% ownership.
Nyheim Hines vs. Seattle – $5,000
Colts Head Coach, Frank Reich, announced Hines had surpassed Marlon Mack on the depth chart last week and then paid Hines $18.6M over the next three years with $12M fully guaranteed. Hilton is out for the foreseeable future leaving a ton of questions about who is going to step up and catch passes, but everyone is overlooking that even with Hilton on the field in 2020, Hines led the Colts in receptions (63) in 2020. The Seahawks are favored in the matchup which points to the Colts playing from behind and Hines being a necessity all game long. He is only rostered at 1.8% and if he hits, he can legitimately help you win a lot of cash.
Calvin Ridley vs. Philadelphia – $7,900
Last year, the Eagles gave up the 8th-most points to opposing wide receivers. Ridley was an absolute monster in 2020 as he led the league in air yards, deep targets and yards/receptions/targets at the mid-level of the field. The Eagles deploy a zone defense more often than not and Ridley is going to have no problem carving it up. As good as he is against the zone (81.4% success rate) he’s just as good against the press (89th percentile in the league). Simply put, he’s an elite receiver that can win no matter what his matchup is (90.5% success rate against double coverage). He was already hyper-targeted in 2020, but now Julio and his 140 targets are gone. Ridley was top-10 in targets per route ran at 24.4% and it’s certainly in the realm of possibility for that to jump up significantly for 2021. He should be a mainstay in your lineups this year.
Marvin Jones @ Houston – $3,600
It’s not a flashy name, but Jones really is a borderline great wide receiver. He was the WR5 over the entire second half of 2020. He’s on a new team and with a rookie quarterback, who we have a ton of data that show rookies have a hard time getting off their first read and we saw through camp and preseason that the first target for Trevor Lawrence is Marvin Jones. His $3,600 price tag gifts you a free square in your lineup. Did we mention he’s playing Houston?
George Kittle @ Detroit – $6,300
This is probably the cheapest Kittle will be all season. With the amount of time Kittle has missed, people seem to be overlooking the fact that he is an elite playmaker. He has the same YPC as Tyreek Hill and he’s going up against a horrendous defense. He presents the same upside as Travis Kelce for $2,000 less. Smash play.
T.J. Hockenson vs. San Francisco – $4,900
Detroit is going to be a really bad football team that is going to be playing from behind every week. That means Goff is going to be throwing the ball a lot, but this receiving room is a joke. Hockenson could very well be the first read on this offense. He was the second read last year and had over 100 targets. As the 1, obviously those numbers go up. It just makes too much sense to plug him in. The price tag is right. The game script is right and the ownership is right (7.5%).
Vikings @ Cincinnati – $3,000
They are being rostered at 0.4% and going up against a quarterback that is coming off a MAJOR knee injury and looked incredibly shaky through camp and preseason. Burrow doesn’t fully trust his knee and this Vikings defense got a full overhaul this offseason.
Patriots vs. Miami – $3,900
In another head-scratcher, the Pats D/ST has an ownership of a mere 2.6%. They get all their covid opt-outs back and Bill Belichick’s defenses have always performed well against young quarterbacks. Will Fuller, who projects as Miami’s downfield stretcher, is suspended for the game. DeVante Parker doesn’t seem to jive well with Tua, so they will be relying on Mike Gesicki and rookie wide receiver, Jaylen Waddle. I can’t see a rookie wide out doing any damage against the Pats. Miami has the second-lowest implied team total (20) on the week. If the Pats D can hold them to the under and come away with a couple turnovers, the could easily hit 4X.