By Jacob Bourgeois; Twitter: @JacobBourgieFFB
Here’s a cheat sheet with the same info compiled and selectable for draft day: Jacob’s Redraft Cheat Sheet.
League assumptions: 12 Team, 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1FLX, 1K, 1DST / PPR scoring.
Consensus ADP is from www.fantasypros.com.
The key to picks from this point on in the draft is how droppable they are after week 1. They all should be very droppable as production on the field is the best predictor of future success. If they don’t have any, let them go and grab the surprise 8 catch week by Kendrick Bourne or Breshad Perriman. Try to avoid guys coming back from injury that you’ll need to make excuses for lack of early production, and feel free to cut rookies as well. Let them develop on waivers rather than on your bench. Later rounds are fluid. If you can get a Week 1 starting Kicker and DST based on matchups here, it’s just getting ahead of the game and I recommend it.
Target: Corey Davis was flat out good last year (see his YpCT: here) and predicts healthy involvement for Julio this year in his please. Meanwhile, Davis is at the top of the “post-hype sleeper” list for me. I like him as bigger possession receiver for the pass-heavy Zach Wilson.
Fade: Mecole Hardman remains an element of the offense but not a regular contributor (even with Watkins off to BAL). With a healthy Tyreek and Kelce his upside will always be capped.
Fade: Tarik Cohen from all accounts hasn’t fully healed up from injury and now has Damien Williams to vie for pass-game targets with, to make no mention of David Montgomery’s significant progress.
Target: Russell Gage had really nice splits when healthy and Julio or Ridley were not active and I expect that to normalize this year into steady WR2 fringe production. If Pitts hits all the way as a rookie, this outlook is tempered.
Fade: Carson Wentz is a moot point now that he’s injured his foot and looks to be out indefinitely, but he looked off target and unsure of himself all last season.
Target: NEP DST is getting back a strong core of starters (please get Gilmore a contract) and will be fired up behind a much to prove head coach. They start the season with Miami and NYJ.
Target: Justin Fields should be starting as soon as week 2 and has nice speed, arm strength, accuracy and decision making. Many of us had him as rookie QB2 behind Lawrence prior to the draft.
Fade: Giovanni Ricci is a glitch in the ADP matrix, just calling it out.
Target: Elijah Moore is already turning heads and gelling down field with Wilson’s big arm. I was hoping he’d start in the slot, but it looks like Mims is freeing up a spot on the outside putting Crowder underneath and pushing Moore outside across from Davis.
Fade: Rashaad Penny could have been a fantasy workhorse but Chris Carson never let go of the job and he just couldn’t stay healthy. At this point, I think the numerous injuries and surgeries have taken the top off of his abilities.
Target: Adam Trautman is one of the great reasons to wait on TE, and even if I draft a big 3 guy, I’ll look for him late as a back-up or trade piece if he goes off week 1. If he doesn’t I can just drop him.
Target: Nelson Agholor should be used in the downfield role for the Patriots which hasn’t looked respectable since Brandon Cooks. I think with their emphasis on the run game, we could see more shots down field. I prefer the targets to come from Mac Jones at this point, but we’ll have to see if he can prove an upgrade over Cam.
Target: Rashod Bateman has already made this ADP obsolete by his roasting Marlon Humphry this week in camp, still going to be a huge upside play wherever he goes.
Target: Jalen Reagor was excellent in limited work on a bad team. The team hasn’t improved, but hopefully his role as a starter across from Smith is becoming clearer in year 2.
Fade: Gabriel Davis will be the John Brown play but as the WR3 on the team, he still has to develop a ton to be a regular contributor in fantasy.
Fade: Sterling Shepard is still the best WR on the team in my opinion, but with Saquon back, Kenny G signed, and Kadarius drafted, I can’t see the offense running through him with enough volume for relevance. That’s when he’s healthy of course.
Target: John Brown is taking over for Agholor as the Z in this downfield pushing offense. There’s nice weekly upside in good matchups if he manages to stay healthy.
Target: Gerald Everett has been looking good and has built-in rapport with his new OC in SEA.
Target: Rondale Moore broke all the way out as a 19-year-old freshman and then dealt with injuries, he looks to be starting the year fully healthy and is one of the beefier WRs you’ll see. Because he has limited college experience, he’ll initially rely on his elite athleticism but that could pay dividends in this offense.
Target: Amon-Ra St. Brown is not over the top in any category but is very competitive and confident. He does share some similarities with Cooper Kupp and has been talk about in a similar role with Jared Goff in DET.
Fade: Sam Darnold certainly could be good with the surrounding bevy of talent, but he’s not shown that he’s able to learn new systems easily, especially to the level needed to command the huddle and make in game reads. I expect this season to be a learning curve.
Fade: Denzel Mims seems to have lost his spot on the depth chart, but even if he hasn’t, I don’t think his volume will surpass that of a footnote field stretcher.