By Jacob Bourgeois; Twitter: @JacobBourgieFFB
It’s already August 1st tomorrow and the Redraft season is upon us. As such, I’m preparing for my leagues by sifting through current ADPs and identifying my targets and fades in each round. I’ve found it a useful tool to take with me into drafts… so maybe you will too? Because it’s a lot, I’ve broken it into three parts, this is the second one covering rounds 6-12 (rounds 1-5 here: Fades and Targets, and rounds 13-17 here).
Here’s a cheat sheet with the same info compiled and selectable for draft day: Jacob’s Redraft Cheat Sheet.
League assumptions: 12 Team, 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1FLX, 1K, 1DST / PPR scoring.
Consensus ADP is from www.fantasypros.com.
Round six is about that time that it begins to be ok to start chasing upside, with a starting core solidified in the first five rounds. If I opt for a QB/TE in the first five rounds, I’ll often play for guaranteed money a little bit longer.
Fade: Kenny Golladay is a definite upside play, but with all the moving pieces it’s hard to see him returning value even in round six where the other guys have more upside and more secure target volume.
Target: Javonte Williams is an early draft pick and three down back. He’s an excellent pairing with Melvin Gordon who is quietly coming off one of his more efficient showings. I expect it to be an even split and the team to be bad for the start of the season, but if Teddy Bridgewater gets the nod and Williams breaks through to starter share, then he’ll pay dividends in my playoff stretch. My pre-draft notes on Williams here: Meet the Freshman.
Fade: Chase Edmonds should get nice volume between the 20’s but I don’t expect his laughable touchdown rate to improve based on James Conner’s size and Kyler Murray’s do-it-myself ability. My Cardinals RB article here: Backfield Battle: ARI.
Fade: Odell Beckham Jr. is hurting the Browns. Quite simply, the team is better without him out there. It was shown last year, and unless he finds another gear he’ll be inefficient on the targets he gets which should decrease as the team realizes he and Baker are just not in sync.
Same as last for me, I keep adding WR and RB depth, while keeping one eye open for value falling at QB or TE.
ADP Riser: Darrell Henderson will be a 3rd round pick when your real draft comes around (Akers our for season), just a reminder to keep an eye on him if you like his value and he slips at all because his name isn’t higher on the list.
Fade: Leonard Fournette was great in the playoffs but despite that strong showing was notably less effective than Ronald Jones who has already looked good in the preseason. It will be a committee but Fournette is the wrong half.
Fade: David Johnson got it done on volume last year, but it’s a new regime and Ingram and Lindsay are days better than what they had mixing in last year. He’s a zero-RB strategy desperation play.
Target: Michael Carter has weekly fringe RB1 upside with this offense, his college production, the wide-open nature of the RB room, and his pass-catching prowess. I believe this has a strong chance to be Carter’s best year. My Michael Carter breakdown here: Michael Carter Dilemma and Jets Backfield breakdown here: Backfield Battle: NYJ.
I like a lot of what round 8 has to offer and I’m transitioning into potential home-run hits vs. safer plays at this point. Matt Stafford and Ryan Tannehill rounding out the QB1’s is why you don’t need to pull the trigger on QB earlier, but there are still great options further down. I love PIT DST, but with Buffalo as their week 1 matchup, there is no need to reach. They also play Green Bay in Week 4. For more on DST: DST.
Target: Jerry Jeudy, a top tier round 1 talent, was involved heavily with Sutton injured and struggled with efficiency as we all know. With Sutton to take some of the coverage, if they can get decent QB play, I expect a solid WR2 output.
Target: Will Fuller V is elite. It’s been an up and down career because of injuries, but outside of that, he’s been a top end PPG value. If Tua can take a step, Fuller will reep the benefits as the primary “get-open-guy” on the outside.
Target: Deebo Samuel is used in ways that typical WRs just aren’t. He had an average depth of target last year of 2.8 yards and turned each target into almost 11 yards, that’s 8 yards all by himself. He’s their pass-catching back AND Curtis Samuel option. With Trey Lance there may be regression for activity around the line of scrimmage, but that’s already baked into this favorable ADP. Yards per Catchable Target efficiency Metric breakdown here: YpCT.
Target: Ronald Jones II looked really good between the tackles and winning the race to the edge, he fought through tackles, and made quick moves to avoid the quick take-downs. His pass-blocking has improved a ton, and he really should be featured as their primary ball carrier. I expect it to be a committee but RJ is the better bet.
Target: Tyler Boyd’s PPR PPG (17) with Burrow is insane compared to where he’s going, even with Chase and Higgins he’s a locked in WR2.
Just crossing the threshold into triple digit ranks and there remain diamonds in the rough. League-winning upside all day.
Fade: Jalen Hurts was bad as a rookie – he has a rushing floor to keep him fantasy relevant, but his 2020 game log of full games: 19, 27, 14, 15 (vs. Saints, Cardinals, Cowboys, and WFT) doesn’t have me racing to the podium.
Target: Trey Sermon’s ADP is hugely suspect in this range and will likely go much higher in your home league draft when it comes around. It’s probably still going to be a buy as he is as David Montgomery as it gets with respect to balance and downfield nose. My pre-draft notes on Trey Sermon here: Meet the Freshmen.
Fade: James Conner will have looks inside the red-zone given he’s the lone back of substance on the team, but I do like Edmonds to get most of the targets and carries and with Kyler eating ground yards there’s little upside.
Target: LAR DST was last year’s DST1 and plays Chicago week 1, and Indianapolis week 2. I’m fine with starting my redraft season 2-0 on their back. Let your league mates laugh. My DST rankings breakdown here: DST.
Target: Antonio Brown is a WR1, plain and simple. Even at his age he may be the best WR on the Buccaneers. Granted he’s going to be third on the depth chart but I don’t expect him to leave the field very often and when he’s out there Brady will be looking for him first.
Target: Robert Tonyan is still young and can build on his second half of 2020. He was a red-zone freak and the team didn’t do much to add big bodied pass catchers in that area. It’ll be Adam’s first, and Tonyan second for GB’s many trips down there. The 365 guys TE Ranks and justifications here: 2021 Tightest Ends.
Fade: Marquise Brown was already boom bust, but with Watkins showing out in camp and Rashod Bateman there to win the WR1 job on the team, it’ll be more bust bust than boom bust.
Target: Jaylen Waddle is a CeeDee Lamb light and much cheaper. The team put the 6th overall pick on him, only one pick behind Ja’Mar Chase and he used to play ball with Tua. As a slot machine, I look for his 2021 to look very similar to CeeDee’s rookie season. Pre-draft notes on Waddle here: Meet the Freshmen.
Target: Laviska Shenault Jr. is built different than the other WRs on the team. I think he has the best chance to be the 8-12 target, chain-moving, X-receiver.
Fade: Justin Tucker is a HOF kicker no question, but when a team lead’s the league in rushing it mean’s bad things for Kickers. He’s not the K1 and this is way too early. I wrote a ditty on why: Kickers.
Target: Younghoe Koo is making a name for himself with back to back double-digit PPG seasons to start his career. With ATL struggling on the ground, I expect many red-zone stall outs. Full kicker position breakdown: Kickers.
Bonus: I also really like Hunter Henry this season to be used more as a WR than a TE for a team that lacks talented pass catchers. The 365 guys TE Ranks and justifications here: 2021 Tightest Ends.
Fade: Darnell Mooney is being propped as the clear WR2 and he may be, but he just wasn’t that efficient as a rookie. He has a strong ADOT but will likely bust more than he booms. I bet he’s on most waiver wires after week 1 (2 catches on 5 targets for 35 yards). Mooney is bottom of the barrel in Yards per Catchable Target: YpCT.
Target: Mike Williams has the new coaches attention and this could finally be the equalizing year between Keenan Allen and Mike Williams in terms of targets. They’re calling Mike the X who traditional has done most of his work down the field. Despite coming off a great season, he has league winning potential at this ADP.
Fade: T.Y. Hilton’s wheels have come off. Even before the Wentz injury, there’s nothing worth doing here.
Target: SF DST is getting Nick Bosa back and starting the season off with Detroit and Philadelphia. I expect turnovers.
From rounds 1-5 I wound up with a likely RB, RB, TE, WR, WR or RB, RB, WR, WR, WR so in 6 through 12 I’ll be prioritizing RB depth and upside: hopefully two of Javonte Williams, Michael Carter, Ronald Jones, or Trey Sermon. And unlike most analysts I like to round out my starting positions before going for upside fliers to try and establish positional advantages such as LAR DST and Younghoe Koo K will provide. My mindset is this, “Can I still get guys that I know I won’t be dropping after week 1 in these rounds?”
After 12 I will likely have:
Stay tuned for Rounds 13 through 17 and a tool to leverage in your upcoming drafts.