By Jacob Bourgeois; Twitter: @JacobBourgieFFB
Definitely not a new concept, but dusting off the WR fall-off numbers to give a look at the current stage of dynasty values for WR. I put a similar look together for RBs already and may do the same for other positions shortly.
Note 1: 2012 Draft class looks pretty bad today, but it boasted Alshon Jeffery, T.Y. Hilton, Marvin Jones, Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, Brian Quick, Mohammad Sanu, and Rishard Matthews. Marvin Jones holds the torch for WRs going into Year 10.
Note 2: From 2011 Julio Jones is a unicorn size/speed threat as we know, he’s struggled with injuries of late but has maintained elite efficiency.
Note 3: From 2010 Antonio Brown almost needs an asterisks missing most of 2019 and 2020 because of Antonio Brown related issues.
Note 4: Not pictured, but hard to believe: DeSean Jackson is going into his 14th season. This is where Tutu Atwell takes over in the Brandon Cooks role. Jackson entered the league with Jordy Nelson a year after Calvin Johnson and Steve Smith Sr.
Note 5: First round picks we’ve given up on and yearly hit rates:
Hit Rate: (?/6) TBD
— N’Keal Harry
Hit Rate: (1/2) </= 50% — Marquise Brown
Hit Rate: (2/2) 100% — Calvin Ridley, D.J. Moore
— John Ross
Hit Rate: (2/3) </= 66% — Corey Davis, Mike WIlliams
— Corey Coleman; Josh Doctson; Laquon Treadmill
Hit Rate: (1/4) 25% — Will Fuller
— Kevin White; Breshad Perriman; Philip Dorsett
Hit Rate: (3/6) </= 50% — Amari Cooper, Nelson Agholor, DeVante Parker
— Sammy Watkins; Kelvin Benjamin
Hit Rate (3/5) 60% — Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Jr., Brandin Cooks
— Tavon Austin
Hit Rate (1/2) 50% — DeAndre Hopkins
— Justin Blackmon; Michael Floyd; Kendall Wright; A.J. Jenkins
Hit Rate (0/4) 0%
— Jonathan Baldwin
Hit Rate (2/3) 66% — Julio Jones, A.J. Green
It seems like this time of year we think, the NFL has finally figured out talent evaluation and we’re going to see an increase in overall hit rates. But we need to remember NFL GMs and Draft scouts have been at this for a long time, and haven’t yet started weighing fantasy big boards into their process… the first round WR hit rate is less than you’d expect, probably on par with but less visible than other positions like RB and QB.
WRs seem to give us 9/10 years so if you can convert rookie picks into 2020/2019/2018 WRs, I would do it. Who knows where your roster will be in 2028? Let’s get some trophies.
That said, if you can get any return for Hopkins, Woods, Keenan Allen, Adam Thielen, TY Hilton, Marvin Jones, Julio Jones, or Antonio Brown you need to try to invest in ascending assets where their time is nigh. Only exception is if it’s an integral piece of your competing team – then keep’m and win the league.